| The Fate of Life
in the Universe |
|
Authors: Lawrence M. Krauss
and Glenn D. Starkman
Billions of
years ago the universe was too hot for life to exist.
Countless eons hence, it will become so cold and empty that
life, no matter how ingenious, will
perish.
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Eternal Life
Eternal life is a core belief of many of the world's
religions. Usually it is extolled as a spiritual Valhalla, an
existence without pain, death, worry or evil, a world removed
from our physical reality. But there is another sort of
eternal life that we hope for, one in the temporal realm. In
the conclusion to Origin of Species, Charles Darwin wrote: "As
all the living forms of life are lineal descendants of those
which lived before the Cambrian epoch, we may feel certain
that the ordinary succession by generation has never once been
broken .... Hence we may look with some confidence to a secure
future of great length." The sun will eventually exhaust its
hydrogen fuel, and life as we know it on our home planet will
eventually end, but the human race is resilient. Our progeny
will seek new homes, spreading into every corner of the
universe just as organisms have colonized every possible niche
of the earth. Death and evil will take their toll, pain and
worry may never go away, but somewhere we expect that some of
our children will carry on.
Or maybe not. Remarkably,
even though scientists fully understand neither the physical
basis of life nor the unfolding of the universe, they can make
educated guesses about the destiny of living things.
Cosmological observations now suggest the universe will
continue to expand forever–rather than, as scientists once
thought, expand to a maximum size and then shrink. Therefore,
we are not doomed to perish in a fiery "big crunch" in which
any vestige of our current or future civilization would be
erased. At first glance, eternal expansion is cause for
optimism. What could stop a sufficiently intelligent
civilization from exploiting the endless resources to survive
indefinitely?
Yet life thrives on energy and
information, and very general scientific arguments hint that
only a finite amount of energy and a finite amount of
information can be amassed in even an infinite period. For
life to persist, it would have to make do with dwindling
resources and limited knowledge. We have concluded that no
meaningful form of consciousness could exist forever under
these conditions.
The Deserts of Vast
Eternity
Over the past century, scientific
eschatology has swung between optimism and pessimism. Not long
after Darwin's confident prediction, Victorian-era scientists
began to fret about the "heat death," in which the whole
cosmos would come to a common temperature and thereafter be
incapable of change. The discovery of the expansion of the
universe in the 1920s allayed this concern, because expansion
prevents the universe from reaching such an equilibrium. But
few cosmologists thought through the other implications for
life in an ever expanding universe, until a classic paper in
1979 by physicist Freeman Dyson of the Institute for Advanced
Study in Princeton, N.J., itself motivated by earlier work by
Jamal Islam, now at the University of Chittagong in
Bangladesh. Since Dyson's paper, physicists and astronomers
have periodically reexamined the topic [see "The Future of the
Universe," by Duane A. Dicus, John R. Letaw, Doris C. Teplitz
and Vigdor L. Teplitz; Scientific American, March 1983]. A
year ago, spurred on by new observations that suggest a
drastically different long term future for the universe than
that previously envisaged, we decided to take another
look.
Over the past 12 billion years or so, the
universe has passed through many stages. At the earliest times
for which scientists now have empirical information, it was
incredibly hot and dense. Gradually, it expanded and cooled.
For hundreds of thousands of years, radiation ruled; the
famous cosmic microwave background radiation is thought to be
a vestige of this era. Then matter started to dominate, and
progressively larger astronomical structures condensed out.
Now, if recent cosmological observations are correct, the
expansion of the universe is beginning to accelerate–a sign
that a strange new type of energy, perhaps springing from
space itself, may be taking over.
Life as we know it
depends on stars. But stars inevitably die, and their birth
rate has declined dramatically since an initial burst about 10
billion years ago. About 100 trillion years from now, the last
conventionally formed star will wink out, and a new era will
commence. Processes currently too slow to be noticed will
become important: the dispersal of planetary systems by
stellar close encounters, the possible decay of ordinary and
exotic matter, the slow evaporation of black
holes.
Assuming that intelligent life can adapt to the
changing circumstances, what fundamental limits does it face?
In an eternal universe, potentially of infinite volume, one
might hope that a sufficiently advanced civilization could
collect an infinite amount of matter, energy and information.
Surprisingly, this is not true. Even after an eternity of hard
and well-planned labor, living beings could accumulate only a
finite number of particles, a finite quantity of energy and a
finite number of bits of information. What makes this failure
all the more frustrating is that the number of available
particles, ergs and bits may grow without bound. The problem
is not necessarily the lack of resources but rather the
difficulty in collecting them.
The culprit is the very
thing that allows us to contemplate an eternal tenure: the
expansion of the universe. As the cosmos grows in size, the
average density of ordinary sources of energy declines.
Doubling the radius of the universe decreases the density of
atoms eightfold. For light waves, the decline is even more
precipitous. Their energy density drops by a factor of 16
because the expansion stretches them and thereby saps their
energy [see illustration below].
Figure 1. Dilution of the
cosmos by the expansion of space affects different forms of
energy in different ways. Ordinary matter (orange) thins out
in direct proportion to volume, whereas the cosmic background
radiation (purple) weakens even faster as it is stretched from
light into microwaves and beyond. The energy density
represented by a cosmological constant (blue) does not change,
at least according to present
theories.
As a result of this dilution, resources become
ever more time-consuming to collect. Intelligent beings have
two distinct strategies: let the material come to them or try
to chase it down. For the former, the best approach in the
long run is to let gravity do the work. Of all the forces of
nature, only gravity and electromagnetism can draw things in
from arbitrarily far away. But the latter gets screened out:
oppositely charged particles balance one another, so that the
typical object is neutral and hence immune to long-range
electrical and magnetic forces. Gravity, on the other hand,
cannot be screened out, because particles of matter and
radiation only attract gravitationally; they do not
repel.
Surrender to the Void
Even
gravity, however, must contend with the expansion of the
universe, which pulls objects apart and thereby weakens their
mutual attraction. In all but one scenario, gravity eventually
becomes unable to pull together larger quantities of material.
Indeed, our universe may have already reached this point;
clusters of galaxies may be the largest bodies that gravity
will ever be able to bind together [see "The Evolution of
Galaxy Clusters," by J. Patrick Henry, Ulrich G. Briel and
Hans Bohringer; Scientific American, December 1998]. The lone
exception occurs if the universe is poised between expansion
and contraction, in which case gravity continues indefinitely
to assemble ever greater amounts of matter. But that scenario
is now thought to contradict observations, and in any event it
poses its own difficulty: after 1033 years or so,
the accessible matter will become so concentrated that most of
it will collapse into black holes, sweeping up any life-forms.
Being inside a black hole is not a happy condition. On the
earth, all roads may lead to Rome, but inside a black hole,
all roads lead in a finite amount of time to the center of the
hole, where death and dismemberment are certain.
Sadly,
the strategy of actively seeking resources fares no better
than the passive approach does. The expansion of the universe
drains away kinetic energy, so prospectors would have to
squander their booty to maintain their speed. Even in the most
optimistic scenario - in which the energy is traveling toward
the scavenger at the speed of light and is collected without
loss - a civilization could garner limitless energy only in or
near a black hole. The latter possibility was explored by
Steven Frautschi of the California Institute of Technology in
1982. He concluded that the energy available from the holes
would dwindle more quickly than the costs of scavenging
[see illustration below]. We recently reexamined this
possibility and found that the predicament is even worse than
Frautschi thought. The size of a black hole required to sweep
up energy forever exceeds the extent of the visible
universe.
Figure 2. Energy collection strategy
devised by physicist Steven Frautschi illustrates how
difficult it will be to survive in the far future, 10100 or so
years from now. In many cosmological scenarios, resources
multiply as the universe - and any arbitrary reference sphere
within it (blue sphere) expands and an increasing fraction of
it becomes observable (red sphere). A civilization could use a
black hole to convert matter–plundered from its empire (green
sphere)–into energy. But as the empire grows, the cost of
capturing new territory increases; the conquest can barely
keep pace with the dilution of matter. In fact, matter will
become so diluted that the civilization will not be able to
safely build a black hole large enough to collect
it.
The cosmic dilution of energy is truly dire if
the universe is expanding at an accelerating rate. All distant
objects that are currently in view will eventually move away
from us faster than the speed of light and, in doing so,
disappear from view. The total resources at our disposal are
therefore limited by what we can see today, at most (see
below).
The Worse of All Possible
Universes
Among all the scenarios for an eternally
expanding universe, the one dominated by the so-called
cosmological constant is the bleakest. Not only is it
unambiguous that life cannot survive eternally in such a
universe, but the quality of life will quickly deteriorate as
well. So if recent observations that the expansion is
accelerating [see "Surveying Space-Time with Supernovae," by
Craig J. Hogan, Robert P. Kirshner and Nicholas B. Suntzeff;
Scientific American, January 1999] are borne out, we could
face a grim future.
Cosmic expansion carries objects
away from one another unless they are bound together by
gravity or another force. In our case, the Milky Way is part
of a larger cluster of galaxies. About 10 million light-years
across, this cluster remains a cohesive whole, whereas
galaxies beyond it are whisked away as intergalactic space
expands. The relative velocity of these distant galaxies is
proportional to their distance. Beyond a certain distance
called the horizon, the velocity exceeds the speed of light
(which is allowed in the general theory of relativity because
the velocity is imparted by the expansion of space itself). We
can see no farther.
If the universe has a cosmological
constant with a positive value, as the observations suggest,
the expansion is accelerating: galaxies are beginning to move
apart ever more rapidly. Their velocity is still proportional
to their distance, but the constant of proportionality remains
constant rather than decreasing with time, as it does if the
universe decelerates. Consequently, galaxies that are now
beyond our horizon will forever remain out of sight. Even the
galaxies we can currently see - except for those in the local
cluster - will eventually attain the speed of light and vanish
from view. The acceleration, which resembles inflation in the
very early universe, began when the cosmos was about half its
present age.
The disappearance of distant galaxies will
be gradual. Their light will stretch out until it becomes
undetectable. Over time, the amount of matter we can see will
decrease, and the number of worlds our starships can reach
will diminish. Within two trillion years, well before the last
stars in the universe die, all objects outside our own cluster
of galaxies will no longer be observable or accessible. There
will be no new worlds to conquer, literally. We will truly be
alone in the universe. @
Expanding universe looks dramatically different
depending on whether the growth is decelerating (upper
sequence) or accelerating (lower sequence). In both cases, the
universe is infinite, but any patch of space–demarcated by a
reference sphere that represents the distance to particular
galaxies - enlarges ( blue sphere). We can see only a limited
volume, which grows steadily as light signals have time to
propagate (red sphere). If expansion is decelerating, we can
see an increasing fraction of the cosmos. More and more
galaxies fill the sky. But if expansion is accelerating, we
can see a decreasing fraction of the cosmos. Space seems to
empty out.
Not all forms of energy are equally subject to
the dilution. The universe might, for example, be filled with
a network of cosmic strings–infinitely long, thin
concentrations of energy that could have developed as the
early universe cooled unevenly. The energy per unit length of
a cosmic string remains unchanged despite cosmic expansion
(see "Cosmic Strings," by Alexander Vilenkin; Scientific
American, December 1987). Intelligent beings might try to cut
one, congregate around the loose ends and begin consuming it.
If the string network is infinite, they might hope to satisfy
their appetite forever. The problem with this strategy is that
whatever lifeforms can do, natural processes can also do. If a
civilization can figure out a way to cut cosmic strings, then
the string network will fall apart of its own accord. For
example, black holes may spontaneously appear on the strings
and devour them. Therefore, the beings could swallow only a
finite amount of string before running into another loose end.
The entire string network would eventually disappear, leaving
the civilization destitute.
What about mining the
quantum vacuum? After all, the cosmic acceleration may be
driven by the so-called cosmological constant, a form of
energy that does not dilute as the universe
expands:
"Cosmological Antigravity," by Lawrence M.
Krauss; Scientific American, January]. If so, empty space is
filled with a bizarre type of radiation, called
Gibbons-Hawking or de Sitter radiation Alas, it is impossible
to extract energy from this radiation for useful work. If the
vacuum yielded up energy, it would drop into a lower energy
state, yet the vacuum is already the lowest energy state there
is.
No matter how clever we try to be and how
cooperative the universe is, we will someday have to confront
the finiteness of the resources at our disposal. Even so, are
there ways to cope forever?
The obvious strategy is to
learn to make do with less, a scheme first discussed
quantitatively by Dyson. In order to reduce energy consumption
and keep it low despite exertion, we would eventually have to
reduce our body temperature. One might speculate about
genetically engineered humans who function at somewhat lower
temperatures than 310 kelvins (98.6 degrees Fahrenheit). Yet
the human body temperature cannot be reduced arbitrarily; the
freezing point of blood is a firm lower limit. Ultimately, we
will need to abandon our bodies entirely.
While
futuristic, the idea of shedding our bodies presents no
fundamental difficulties. It presumes only that consciousness
is not tied to a particular set of organic molecules but
rather can be embodied in a multitude of different forms, from
cyborgs to sentient interstellar clouds [see "Will Robots
Inherit the Earth?" by Marvin Minsky; Scientific American,
October 1994]. Most modern philosophers and cognitive
scientists regard conscious thought as a process that a
computer could perform. The details need not concern us here
(which is convenient, as we are not competent to discuss
them). We still have many billions of years to design new
physical incarnations to which we will someday transfer our
conscious selves. These new "bodies" will need to operate at
cooler temperatures and at lower metabolic rates - that is,
lower rates of energy consumption.
Dyson showed that if
organisms could slow their metabolism as the universe cooled,
they could arrange to consume a finite total amount of energy
over all of eternity. Although the lower temperatures would
also slow consciousness - the number of thoughts per second -
the rate would remain large enough for the total number of
thoughts, in principle, to be unlimited. In short, intelligent
beings could survive forever, not just in absolute time but
also in subjective time. As long as organisms were guaranteed
to have an infinite number of thoughts, they would not mind a
languid pace of life. When billions of years stretch out
before you, what's the rush?
At first glance, this
might look like a case of something for nothing. But the
mathematics of infinity can defy intuition. For an organism to
maintain the same degree of complexity, Dyson argued, its rate
of information processing must be directly proportional to
body temperature, whereas the rate of energy consumption is
proportional to the square of the temperature (the additional
factor of temperature comes from basic thermodynamics).
Therefore, the power requirements slacken faster than
cognitive alacrity does (see illustration below). At
310 kelvins, the human body expends approximately 100 watts.
At 155 kelvins, an equivalently complex organism could think
at half the speed but consume a quarter of the power. The
trade-off is acceptable because physical processes in the
environment slow down at a similar rate.
Eternal life on finite energy?
If a new form of life could lower its body temperature below
the human value of 310 kelvins (98.6 degrees Fahrenheit), it
would consume less power, albeit at the cost of thinking more
sluggishly (top graph). Because metabolism would decline
faster than cognition, the life-form could arrange to have an
infinite number of thoughts on limited resources. One caveat
is that its ability to dissipate waste heat would also
decline, preventing it from cooling below about 10-13 kelvin.
Hibernation (bottom graph) might eliminate the problem of heat
disposal. As the life-form cools, it would spend an increasing
fraction of its time dormant, further reducing its average
metabolic rate and cognitive speed. In this way, the power
consumption could always remain lower than the maximum rate of
heat dissipation, while still allowing for an infinite number
of thoughts. But such a scheme might run afoul of other
problems, such as quantum
limits.
To Sleep, to Die
Unfortunately, there is a
catch. Most of the power is dissipated as heat, which must
escape usually by radiating away - if the object is not to
heat up. Human skin, for example, glows in infrared light. At
very low temperatures, the most efficient radiator would be a
dilute gas of electrons. Yet the efficiency even of this
optimal radiator declines as the cube of the temperature,
faster than the decrease in the metabolic rate. A point would
come when organisms could not lower their temperature further.
They would be forced instead to reduce their complexity–to dumb
down. Before long, they could no longer be regarded as
intelligent.
To the timid, this might seem like the
end. But to compensate for the inefficiency of radiators,
Dyson boldly devised a strategy of hibernation. Organisms
would spend only a small fraction of their time awake. While
sleeping, their metabolic rates would drop, but - crucially -
they would continue to dissipate heat. In this way, they could
achieve an ever lower average body temperature [see
illustration on opposite page]. In fact, by spending an
increasing fraction of their time asleep, they could consume a
finite amount of energy yet exist forever and have an infinite
number of thoughts. Dyson concluded that eternal life is
indeed possible.
Since his original paper, several
difficulties with his plan have emerged. For one, Dyson
assumed that the average temperature of deep space - currently
2.7 kelvins, as set by the cosmic microwave background
radiation - would always decrease as the cosmos expands, so
that organisms could continue to decrease their temperature
forever. But if the universe has a cosmological constant, the
temperature has an absolute floor fixed by the Gibbons-Hawking
radiation. For current estimates of the value of the
cosmological constant, this radiation has an effective
temperature of about 10-29 kelvin. As was pointed
out independently by cosmologists J. Richard Gott II, John
Barrow, Frank Tipler and us, once organisms had cooled to this
level, they could not continue to lower their temperature in
order to conserve energy.
The second difficulty is the
need for alarm clocks to wake the organisms periodically.
These clocks would have to operate reliably for longer and
longer times on less and less energy. Quantum mechanics
suggests that this is impossible. Consider, for example, an
alarm clock that consists of two small balls that are taken
far apart and then aimed at each other and released. When they
collide, they ring a bell. To lengthen the time between
alarms, organisms would release the balls at a slower speed.
But eventually the clock will run up against constraints from
Heisenberg's uncertainty principle, which prevents the speed
and position of the balls from both being specified to
arbitrary precision. If one or the other is sufficiently
inaccurate, the alarm clock will fail, and hibernation will
turn into eternal rest.
One might imagine other alarm
clocks that could forever remain above the quantum limit and
might even be integrated into the organism itself.
Nevertheless, no one has yet come up with a specific mechanism
that could reliably wake an organism while consuming finite
energy.
The Eternal Recurrence of the
Same
The third and most general doubt about the
long-term viability of intelligent life involves fundamental
limitations on computation. Computer scientists once thought
it was impossible to compute without expending a certain
minimum amount of energy per operation, an amount that is
directly proportional to the temperature of the computer.
Then, in the early 1980s, researchers realized that certain
physical processes, such as quantum effects or the random
Brownian motion of a particle in a fluid, could serve as the
basis for a lossless computer [see "The Fundamental Physical
Limits of Computation," by Charles H. Bennett and Rolf
Landauer; Scientific American, July 1985]. Such computers
could operate with an arbitrarily small amount of energy. To
use less, they simply slow down–a trade-off that eternal
organisms may be able to make. There are only two conditions.
First, they must remain in thermal equilibrium with their
environment. Second, they must never discard information. If
they did, the computation would become irreversible, and
thermodynamically an irreversible process must dissipate
energy.
Unhappily, those conditions become
insurmountable in an expanding universe. As cosmic expansion
dilutes and stretches the wavelength of light, organisms
become unable to emit or absorb the radiation they would need
to establish thermal equilibrium with their surroundings. And
with a finite amount of material at their disposal, and hence
a finite memory, they would eventually have to forget an old
thought in order to have a new one. What kind of perpetual
existence could such organisms have, even in principle? They
could collect only a finite number of particles and a finite
amount of information. Those particles and bits could be
configured in only a finite number of ways. Because thoughts
are the reorganization of information, finite information
implies a finite number of thoughts. All organisms would ever
do is relive the past, having the same thoughts over and over
again. Eternity would become a prison, rather than an
endlessly receding horizon of creativity and exploration. It
might be nirvana, but would it be living?
It is only
fair to point out that Dyson has not given up. In his
correspondence with us, he has suggested that life can avoid
the quantum constraints on energy and information by, for
example, growing in size or using different types of memory.
As he puts it, the question is whether life is "analog" or
"digital" - that is, whether continuum physics or quantum
physics sets its limits. We believe that over the long haul
life is digital.
Is there any other hope for eternal
life? Quantum mechanics, which we argue puts such unbending
limits on life, might come to its rescue in another guise. For
example, if the quantum mechanics of gravity allows the
existence of stable wormholes, life-forms might circumvent the
barriers erected by the speed of light, visit parts of the
universe that are otherwise inaccessible, and collect infinite
amounts of energy and information. Or perhaps they could
construct "baby" universes [see "The Self-Reproducing
Inflationary Universe," by Andrei Linde; Scientific American,
November 1994] and send themselves, or at least a set of
instructions to reconstitute themselves, through to the baby
universe. In that way, life could carry on.
The
ultimate limits on life will in any case become significant
only on timescales that are truly cosmic. Still, for some it
may seem disturbing that life, certainly in its physical
incarnation, must come to an end. But to us, it is remarkable
that even with our limited knowledge, we can draw conclusions
about such grand issues. Perhaps being cognizant of our
fascinating universe and our destiny within it is a greater
gift than being able to inhabit it forever.
The
Authors
Lawrence M. Krauss and Glenn D.
Starkman consider their ruminations on the future of life
as a natural extension of their interest in the fundamental
workings of the universe. Krauss's books on the predictions of
science fiction, The Physics of Star Trek and Beyond
Star Trek, have a similar motivation. The chair of the
physics department at Case Western Reserve University in
Cleveland, Krauss was among the first cosmologists to argue
forcefully that the universe is dominated by a cosmological
constant–a view now widely shared. Starkman, also a professor
at Case Western, is perhaps best known for his work on the
topology of the universe. Both authors are frustrated
optimists. They have sought ways that life could persist
forever, to no avail. Nevertheless they maintain the hope that
the Cleveland Indians will win the World Series in the ample
time that remains.
Further
Reading
TIME WITHOUT END: PHYSICS AND BIOLOGY IN AN
OPEN UNIVERSE. Freeman J. Dyson in Reviews of Modern
Physics, Vol. 51, No. 3, pages 447-460;July
1979.
THE ANTHROPIC COSMOLOGICAL PRINCIPLE. John D.
Barrow and Frank J. Tipler. Oxford University Press,
1988.
THE LAST THREE MINUTES: CONJECTURES ABOUT THE
ULTIMATE FATE OF THE UNIVERSE. Paul C. W. Davies. Harper
Collins, 1997.
THE FIVE AGES OF THE UNIVERSE: INSIDE
THE PHYSICS OF ETERNITY. Fred Adams and Greg Laughlin. Free
Press, 1999.
QUINTESSENCE: THE MYSTERY OF THE MISSING
MASS. Lawrence M. Krauss. Basic Books, 1999.
LIFE, THE
UNIVERSE, AND NOTHING: LIFE AND DEATH IN AN EVER EXPANDING
UNIVERSE. Lawrence M. Krauss and Glenn D. Starkman in
Astrophysical Journal (in press). Available at
xxx.lanl.gov/abs/astro-ph/9902189 on the World Wide
Web.
Milestones on the road to eternity
range from the big bang through the birth and death of stars
(see timelines below). As the last stars wane, intelligent
beings will need to find new sources of energy, such as cosmic
strings (illustration above). Unfortunately, natural processes
- such as outbreaks of black holes - will erode these linear
concentrations of energy, eventually forcing life-forms to
seek sustenance elsewhere, if they can find it. Because the
governing processes of the universe act on widely varying
timescales, the timeline is best given a logarithmic scale. If
the universe is now expanding at an accelerating rate,
additional effects (shown on the timeline in blue) will make
life even more miserable.
Time Scale from the Beginning to the End
of the Universe
Some Interesting Links:
http://www.aleph.se/Trans/Global/Omega/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultimate_fate_of_the_Universe
http://www.nature.com/nsu/020520/020520-11.html
http://www.4reference.net/encyclopedias/wikipedia/Ultimate_fate_of_the_Universe.html
http://imagine.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/features/exhibit/map_fate.html
http://www.ecology.com/ecology-today-extra/earth-in-5-billion-years/
http://www.winternet.com/~gmcdavid/html_dir/anthropic.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/2346907.stm
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